BERTS BEST BETS

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This blog is where i will post my daily pointers for horses and man of the match betting for most with any other good value bets taking my eye.

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Roma v Napoli

Posted by bertatherton on February 4, 2014 at 4:10 PM Comments comments (0)

Roma v Napoli in the coppa italia 7:45 ko 5th feb

Roma have a fantastic home record and only conceded 2 goals at home all season as well with only 1 draw and 0 loses, Napoli are going through a slight rough patch with only 1 win in last 4 games but in general have a decent away record and a very dangerous side going forward. Both teams are taking this competition seriously and expected to play full strength sides with Roma players also been the fresher as there game on sunday was abandoned after only a few minutes.

The Ratings -

Roma - at home romas highest rated player is De Rossi with a average of 7.96 he has no goals or assits or HRP awards either, apart from goals hes a all rounder with good stats across the board been up there on interceptions tackles blocks has the most passes per game by a fair amount and good areal duals won too but seems to be that player that always is consistent but just cant do enough at times to grab the HRP.

 

Benatia and Totti are the next 2 highest rated players and jointly won most HRP at home with 2 each and surpisingly totti only has 1 goal but 5 assists tho and benatia the defender 3 home goals, Benatia has all the attributes that you want in a defender has the most averages for areal duals won intercetions blocked shots and clearances and a good average for tackles, Totti averages a big 4.1 key passes a game and as stated before has 5 assists in 6 home games.

Gervinho to the surprise of us Brits has been outstanding so far for Roma and has 3 goals and 3 home assists with a average of 7.69 and the highest average dribbles with 2.3 per home game, this has earnt him 1 HRP award at home so far.

The thing that stands out about roma is the quality in the midfield with Pjanic Strootman Nainggolan and pre mentioned De Rossi, Nainggolan has highest average tackles 3.7 (Cagliari mainly) Strootman has the 2nd highest average tackles of 3.4 with Pjanic n De Rossi posting good averages too, 

Stootman has lots of good attributes with goals and assists mainly coming away from home and provides 1.9 key passes a game and is free kick taker majority of the time.

Pjanic very similar has very good stats across the board and has 3 home goals and 2 assists to his name inc 1 HRP and a rating of 7.61 2.2 key passes and 1.5 dribbles a game.

The Roma team is very good on stats and as you can see by their midfield is hard to break down they only concede a average of 9 shots a game 3 of those blocked and only conceded 1 shot on target in the last 4 home games inc a game v juve.

Napoli -


Their players have won 6 HRP awards away from home split between 5 players with only Higuain getting more than 1, he has 6 goals and 5 assists and a rating of 7.14 but apart from his goals and assists nothing really stands out about his stats, am not saying there bad stats but hes not in the top 5 or so apart from shots taken which you expect from a forward his rating seems solely dependent on goals and assists.

Callejon is the highest rated player with 7.2 and 1 HRP in away games he has 4 goals and a good tackle average of 2.3 for a attacking player a decent key pass average but no away assists to his name .

Mertens has been a very important player for them recently with 4 goals in his last 6 starts 1 assist and 1 HRP and is taking lots of long shots lately which napoli could be restricted to.

Napoli havent got the greatest defence but the 2 defensive minded mids have good averages in tackles interecptons clearances to give support to the weaker part of he team, Inler Behrami or Dzemaili will be fighting for the 2 pos there.

The other thing to mention for Napoli is the right back position 3 out of the top 8 rated for Napoli have been the right back with Maggio the only fit 1 at the min and already got 1 HRP which was away and a rating of 6.95 and the best areal duals won with a average of 3 per game.


Looking at the odds on Bet victor rightly so this is a wide open choice for Highest rated in which you can give good reasons for at least 8 or so players. With Romas home record if they can keep it up would expect it to be really hard for a Napoli player to win but as stated before just because a player isnt on the winning team doesnt mean they cant win HRP, tackles clearances and areal duals could play just as bigger part as goals and assists. Napoli need to attack to stand a chance cos they cant rely on their defence to hold out and conceding 3 in the last game shows this.

Opinion-

I think Roma will win and more than likely win to 0 Higuain Callejon Mertens and Insinge are very dangerous but this Roma team are so hard working at home and if they can limit Juve to no shots on target could do the same here. Gervinho has been so dangerous going forward lately and could be the person to unlock the Napoli defence but in more of a creative role than scorer.


All the highest rated odds are at bet victor with the stats at whoscored.com and can watch them live in play.

Roda v Feyenoord

Posted by bertatherton on February 4, 2014 at 6:55 AM Comments comments (0)

This is the first blog i have done in a while and decided i am going to try do some write ups for some of the whoscored.com highest rated games.

Roda v Feyenoord in the dutch eredivisie 17:45 ko

the away team are favs for this game at around 7/10 they are 4th in the league with Roda 16th, Feyenoord have won 3 out of the last 5 away games with Roda only winning 1 in their last 5 home games. Fey havent got the best away record but take on a team they should be stronger than and dont win many games which is why they are 16th in the league.

Onto the ratings,

Quiet simply the majoriy of the highest rated player are from Feyenoord due to them winning a bigger percentage of games which doesnt always mean that 1 of their players will win the HRP (highest rated player award) but gives them a better chnace as the players will get a bigger boost at the final reconing of the ratings. 

Pelle  has most HRP awards with 7 with a avergae of 7.93 this is mainly due to his 16 goals and 3 assists in 19 games, but in away games he may still have the highest average rating of 7.76 but only has 2 HRP and scored 4 goals and 1 assist in 9 games so it is a very big difference to his home form. He has 4 HRP in Feyenoords last 7 games and understandably is the bookies fav at 5/1.

Immers has the 2nd most HRP with 3 and is 3rd highest rated in the game overall 1 of these in away games and is 2nd highest goal scorer with 4 goals in away games joint with Pelle.

5 other players have won HRP for Feyenoord with Schaken winning twice but ppl always seem to be blind sighted by the average ratings goals and previous HRP awards, yes this does help and can see players form but there is lots more stats to be taken into account, tackles dribbles key passes aerial duels won and clearances are good points scorers to keep the ratings ticking over.

 

Graziano Pellè5/1

Jordy Clasie7/1

Jean-Paul Boetius7/1

Lex Immers7/1

Stefan de Vrij11/1

Daryl Janmaat11/1

Ruben Schaken11/1

Tonny Vilhena11/1

This above is the first 8 in the betting on Bet victor which mirrors the average rating of the respected players and is all Feyenoord players so the bookies clearl feel that Roda will lose meaning they have less chance at the winning player. Dont discount any Roda players just because you think they will lose as their players could see the most action meaning that they will get most stats like clearances blocks tackles ect.

Peppen for Roda has the highest aveage tackles and interceptions he has a average rating of 6.93 and has won 1 HRP this came in their last home win 2 games ago and is 14/1 tonight.

Boetius is joint highest dribbler and has most assists for Feyenoord both overall and away from home but is a player that more often than not is subbed which doesnt help with the HRP as he has less time to build his score up and recieves a slightly lower boost at the end.

Immers is a mid that scores a fair amount of goals has a good average of shots with 2.3 he has 4 goals away from home has 2 away assists and provides the 2nd highest average of key passes per away game for Feyenoord behind Pelle, he very rarely gets subbed either.

 

de Vrij is the highest rated defender and has the most goals with 3 all coming away from home but hasnt won a HRP this season.

Clasie is the Feyenoord player who averages most passes per game with a good % accurate and a high number of accurate long balls and 

2nd highest tackle percentage overall.


My personal view on this game is -

I think Feyenoord will win and a Feyenoord player will win HRP Pelle is too short at 5/1 looking at his away record even though he has the highest rating and most HRP. I dont think Roda will be easy to beat and could be only 1 goal or so in the game.


All these stats and live updates during the game are all available at whoscored.com and all the odds for the highest rated market at bet victor for this game.

1st Day of the Grand National meeting

Posted by bertatherton on April 4, 2013 at 6:50 AM Comments comments (0)

Today is the first day of the grand national meeting and i am trying something new from previous years. I n the last few years we have heard the excuse 'the horse obviously had a harder race at chelt than we expected and took it out of the horse' so this year with it been a week less for recovery i am focusing on horses that didnt have generally hard races or are just fresher.

2:00 L'Unique 12/1 didnt run at chelt and should be fresher than most of these and a previous cd winner with a big danger in Irish Saint

2:30 SILVINACO CONTI evens a class act in the field and will be quite fresh as he fell at chelt when looking good

3:05 GRANDOUET 9/2  same as SC fell when looking good so not had a hard race at chelt and this could be the edge in the race

4:50 FAGO 5/1 missed chelt and a real good horse will take some beating by horses that all ran at chelt


two horses at taunton that i like 

HUNT BALL 5/2 really game battler who could really realish this race but my only worry is that he had a hard race at chelt

THUNDERING HOME 11/2 a horse i have followed this season and won me some good money has a penalty and longer distance to over come which i think should be better for the horse as all its best work comes at the end of races


Bank holiday monday

Posted by bertatherton on April 1, 2013 at 5:30 AM Comments comments (0)

After 2 winners and 2 places on sat and a winner advertised on twitter yest i thought i wud have a look at the newscastle card for today and these are what ive come up with

2:55 INDIAN CASTLE

3:25 PRINCE TAM / MOONSOON MUSIC

3:55 NORTHERN ACRES

4:25 MCMURROUGH

4:55 CROWNING JEWEL (win) and either BYGONES OF BRID or RUMBLE OF THUNDER for the fc

5:25 DINGO BAY / BLAZING DIVA


I also have been looking at the rugby and found what i think has a great chance for the anytime try scorers

KEARNY 10/11 bradford bulls

CUDJOE 11/10 hudderfield giants

MELI 4/6 st helens

ATKINS 8/11 warrington

RICHARDS 4/5 wigan

a 5 fold pays over 17/1 but i have put 4folds on too in case 1 lets me down

as a single bet 

COSBY 7/1 for wigan is good value too 

good luck to anybody that follows hope to win ya plenty of money

World cup racing t meydan

Posted by bertatherton on March 29, 2013 at 11:20 AM Comments comments (0)

sat is the big money meeting at meydan and these are my picks some of the races i have picked 2 or 3 i personally will be doing a rfc and combo tc

1:10 SOFT FALLING RAIN WON / SURFER 

1:45 AHZEEMAH PLACED

2:25 LAW ENFORCEMENT

3:05 SHEA SHEA WON / DUX SCHOLAR / SOLE POWER

3:45 FREDERICK ENGELS

4:40 LIKE MIKE / GIOFRA PLACED

5:20 SHARETA

6:05 AFRICAN STORY/ HUNTERS LIGHT / KASSIANO

good luck everybody 

and of course in the DONCASTER LINCOLN - CAPTAIN BERTIE (not just for the name it is a good horse that i followed last season but rather short in a hard race)


some decent racing today

Posted by bertatherton on March 24, 2013 at 7:50 AM Comments comments (0)

for a sunday there seems to be some decent racing today with some good racing in ireland some aw at ling and jumps at wincanten

i have gone through the cards and pickedsome small bets for today but i would keep them at small as the horses in ireland are having their first race of the season the aw can be unpredictable and the jumps is coming to the end of their season

WHISPERING JACK 4:25 W LOST

BEAT ROUTE 3:10 L WON

MIAS BOY 3:40 L PLACED

BUBBLEY BALLERINA 4:10 L LOST

JOE ELLE 3:00 C PLACED

EINSTEINS FOLLY 4:00 C PLACED

ANTON CHIGUAH 4:30 C LOST

While i have your attension there is a cracking value bet for the grand national available right now

ladbrookes are offering 16/1 a female rider wins the grand national now even if you dont think a female can win the national this is a good value bet as you will be getting at least 4-5 runners for 16/1 and to add to this katie walsh is already booked for seabass who is 10/1 in places so you r getting an extra 6/1 on this horse alone in theory and come the day at least 1 female ridden horse will be 8/1 or shorter due to the hose wifes betting

sunday 24th march motm game

Posted by bertatherton on March 24, 2013 at 7:40 AM Comments comments (0)

the game today is tranmere v stevenage today was a very simple choice for man of the match for me the last time we saw tranmere play they lost 2-0 but 1 player stood out head and shoulders above the rest

BAKAYOGO 14/1 

to go with him a player who is improving game by game and taking the eye

MAX POWER 10/1

there will be no cards bets as its a market where you have to pick the right games and players no need in betting for bettings sake

NO MOTM GIVEN WHEN BAKAYOGO WAS A CLEAR WINNER PISSED OFF

value bets

Posted by bertatherton on March 23, 2013 at 12:20 AM Comments comments (0)

tonight i have spotted some nice value bets

YOUNG 5/4 score anytime betfred WON

BAINES 11/4 to score anytime corals LOST 

MELI (st helens) 10/11 anytime try skybet WON

HUDDERSFIELD +10 v warrington evens stan james LOST

J MONAGHAN (warrington) evens anytime try lads LOST

GOTZE 13/10 score anytime corals WON




back tonight hopefully with a bang

Posted by bertatherton on March 22, 2013 at 10:50 AM Comments comments (0)

tonight is the internationals which i personally am not a big fan of but in the scotland v wales match there is a good value man of the match market along with a to be carded market which could be a very good market tonight with good odds, local (for international) rivalry, a must win game for both teams, and a little bit of animosity from the last game in which bale (wales) won 2-1

its gordan strachens first game in charge and scotland have home advantage and with bale missing some training might not be 100%. my thoughts on tonight is that scotland will reverse the score and win 2-1 even tho they have had a lot of drop outs with injury still look to have a decent squad who are all playing well at their respected teams.

man of the match - dont forget team news is vital especially for scotland

only bet victor pricing this market up if you havent got a account thres a link on my links page to get a free £25 matched bet

WILLIAMS 16/1 a dont think any reason need to be given for this selection has to up there this season with the best cb this season in the prem

SNODGRASS 14/1 - been really impressed with him this season and such a creative talent  could be the main creative piont in this scottish team if he starts.

none starter MARTIN 50/1 - if this player starts 50/1 is way to over priced and worth a quid in fantastic form but fully expect hutton to start over him 

ALL BETS WERE VOIDED ON MOTM NONE WAS GIVEN MONEY BACK

to be carded market - again wait for team news first

sky bet and betfair only 1s pricing this market up

MULGREW 9/2 - likes a card a always involved in games which highers the chance of a card

RAMSEY 4/1 - always a good person to back in this market very tempermental and silly doing stupid tackles and kicking the ball away WINNER

none starter ADAM 5/2 A- a very poor tackler and has a bit of a feud with bale could be a cracking bet 

KEEPER 11/2 (small stake) always a little decent bet in big games for the time wasting element alone

tuesdays horses

Posted by bertatherton on March 18, 2013 at 5:10 PM Comments comments (0)

not a great day today but seen that POWERFUL PIERRE  is running tomorrow after been extremly unlucky in running last time so i can pass it up at 7/2 in the 2:20 wolves



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